Can Andrew Yang win?

Since 1950, the January primary front-runner, according to national polling, has been more likely to lose the primary than to win it. [1]

Andrew Yang is in 5th place in some DNC qualifying polls, and is getting between 3-6% among those polled.

1976 Election:
In the 1st half of 1975, Jimmy Carter was in 16th place out of 18 candidates. He polled at 0.8%.

In the 2nd half of 1975, Jimmy Carter moved up to 13th place, out of 13 remaining candidates. His polling number had actually dropped to 0.5%.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter won the primary with 40% of the vote. [2] He went on to win the Presidency.

1992 Election:
In the 1st half of 1991, Bill Clinton was tied for 11th place out of 18 candidates. He polled at 1.3%.

In the 2nd half of 1991, Bill Clinton’s polling improved to 7.4%, putting him in 4th place.

In 1992, Bill Clinton won the primary. He went on to win the Presidency.

2004 Election:
In December 2003, John Kerry was in 6th place. He polled at 4%.

In 2004, John Kerry won the primary.

2016 Election:
In July 2015, Donald Trump was in 7th place in the Republican primaries, polling at 6.5%.

In one week, Trump leapt into 1st place.

[1] Gallup
[2] FiveThirtyEight
[3] CanAndrewYangWin.com

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